Applying system dynamics modelling to building resilient logistics : a case of the Humber Ports Complex

This research employs system dynamics modelling to analyse the structural behaviour of the interactions between Disaster Preparedness, Environment Instability, and Resilience in maritime logistics chain as a response to policy change, or strategic risk management interventions, at ports on the Humber Estuary.Port authorities, logistics operators, agencies, transporters, and researchers have revealed that disasters lead to interruptions in free flow of supply chains, and has the potential to disrupt the overall performance of a logistics chain. There is strong evidence about the rise in frequency, magnitude, and disruption potentials of catastrophic events in recent times (e.g. 9/11 attack, the Japanese earthquake/Tsunami and the aftermath nuclear disaster, Hurricanes Katrina and Haiyan, Super Storm Sandy, and many more). However, it appears that risk managers are not able to anticipate the outcomes of risk management decisions, and how those strategic interventions can affect the future of the logistics chain. Management appears to misjudge (or miscalculate) risks, perhaps due to the assumed complexity, the unpredictability of associated disruptions, and sometimes due to individual managerial approach to risk management. The uncertainties and states assumed notwithstanding, investors and regulators have become increasingly intolerant for risk mismanagement. Shipowners and port authorities tend to managing cost instead of managing risk. Hence they appear to invest little time and fewer resources in managing disruptions in their logistics chains even though they seem to frequently conduct risk assessments. We suggest that disaster preparedness that leads to resilience in maritime logistics chain is the best alternative to preventing or reducing the impacts of disruptions from catastrophes.We aim at improving current level of understanding the sources of disruptions in port/maritime logistics system through analysing the interdependencies between key variables. The dynamic models from this research have revealed that there is strong influence relationships (interdependencies) between Disaster Preparedness, Environment Instability, and Resilience. We found that potential sources of disruptions along the spokes of maritime logistics system can be port physics related, however the subtle triggering factors appear to be port size related. We also found that policy interventions geared towards risk management have the potential to produce unintended consequences basically due to unacknowledged conditions. Thus the relevance of the research and the SD models was to provide strategic policy makers with real-time decision evaluation tool that can provide justification for acceptance or rejection of a risk management intervention prior to decision implementation

Scenario analysis and disaster preparedness for port and maritime logistics risk management

System Dynamics (SD) modelling is used to investigate the impacts of policy interventions on industry actors’ preparedness to mitigate risks and to recover from disruptions along the maritime logistics and supply chain network. The model suggests a bi-directional relation between regulation and industry actors’ behaviour towards Disaster Preparedness (DP) in maritime logistics networks. The model also showed that the level of DP is highly contingent on forecast accuracy, technology change, attitude to risk prevention, port activities, and port environment

Progressing Towards Developed Country Status: The Sustainability of Ghana’s Cocoa Supply Chain in Focus

There is mixed feeling and mixed reaction from various quarters in recent times towards the perception that Ghana is progressively crawling into a developed country status. Generally, one would expect the change in status to rain in foreign companies to build factories and to provide essential services commensurate with economic growth and development. However, industrialisation (particularly of an unplanned economy) could aggravate rural-urban migration, urban congestion, and inevitably escalate disputes relative to labour, society, and environment. We anticipate that the agriculture sector in general, and the cocoa supply chain in particular would be the most hit by the change to a developed country status. Already in recent times, the cocoa industry is threatened with farm abandonment, migration, crop replacement perhaps due to the perceived unsustainability of the cocoa industry, and land capture by mining concessionaires.  This research proposes the use of complex interdependent, multidisciplinary investigative approach, or decision-making tools to investigate how downstream chain partners (manufacturers - local, foreign, and multinational companies) could work with their upstream members (suppliers and farmers) to achieve sustainability in the cocoa supply chain. Thus a longitudinal study is proposed as we adopt an embedded case study approach by employing a combination of research designs (interviews, focus groups, observations, surveys, and ethnography research). Data will be sourced from both the upstream and downstream key cocoa industry players and stakeholders, including: the Cocoa Board, Produce Buying Companies, Farmers, Research Institutes, Extension Officers, Port Operators, Cocoa product Haulage Companies, Cocoa Product Manufacturing Companies and any others. A preliminary result suggests that cocoa yield and the health of its supply chain could grow weaker in the years to come, even though government records shows increase in yield by tonnage in recent years. Cocoa farming appears to becoming a disincentive to farmers. The farmers feel excluded from decisions that bothered on their own welfare and do not get a fair-share from their toil. Our findings could therefore awaken the various stakeholders and thus result in designing pragmatic policies that will improve lives of the upstream cocoa supply chain partners, as a departure from the current situation where arguably, the downstream arm-chaired air-conditioned officers and politicians become the sole beneficiaries of cocoa proceeds. Our contribution could encourage rehabilitation of the cocoa landscapes, the conservation and expansion of cocoa forest, and the creation of forest buffer zones and corridors. Cocoa farmers would be incentivised enough to adopt and own the environmentally friendly best practices. Improve cocoa production is also expected to increase research into forest plant medicine, result in better ecosystem management and possibly pave way for ecotourism. Furthermore, improve cocoa production can reduce employment pressure on the state, reduce rural-urban migration, city congestion, urban waste management and inorganic waste pollution. As the quality of rural life improves through policies that can lead to poverty alleviation, revenue generation, income redistribution, and availability of amenities (good roads, schools, health facilities and electricity), the tendency to migrate to urban cities and subsequently to abroad would reduce